With the recent adjustment of PV subsidy governments and cuts, the PV market has entered a gradual cooling process. We in chronological order, will begin in January to mid-May to analyze price movements, the results are as follows:
In January, the biggest change is the price of silicon area stockpile more serious, widespread reluctance to sell, resulting in crystal rose upstream downstream market fell, silicon and silicon prices have risen. Increased demand for polysilicon film, the downstream cell and module prices have risen a small margin, polycrystalline 230 156 battery components and polycrystalline relatively active trading, but profit margins are still being squeezed. 125 monocrystalline silicon wafers currently have no market price, but 2.3-2.5 watt monocrystalline 125 inefficient battery relatively hot. Since the end of the Western Christmas holidays, there is a slight improvement in end markets, the main market is still in Italy.
680 yuan per kilogram early February, the upstream and downstream prices generally rose, polysilicon and wafer prices have been rising, the polysilicon from 630 yuan before the Spring Festival rose straight after the Spring Festival. Monocrystalline 125 by year's 17.5 yuan / piece straight jump to 18.5 yuan / piece, silicon chip 156 has been raised. Polysilicon film 156 relatively scarce, demand-driven price increases. Price driven upstream and downstream solar cell prices have been driven up. But by mid upstream prices continue to climb, but the downstream cell and module prices unchanged. Polysilicon prices rose to around 90 US dollars / kg, both domestic and foreign silicon material prices rise simultaneously. Wafer continued price increases, the market price of polysilicon film 156 at 29 yuan / piece, but there is still room to rise. Monocrystalline 156 market price reached 32 yuan / piece. This case has not been effectively resolved by the end of the upstream prices continue soaring, weak downstream component requirements. The basic spot price of silicon material manufacturers RMB 750-780 yuan per kilogram, but component prices there are loose, small factories offer 1.62-1.66 dollars per W, manufacturers are in the 1.72-1.76 dollars / between W, the spot price of foreign components around $ 1.76-1.80 / W, but single-crystal component purchase price control at $ 1.63-1.69 / W or so.
March due to the adjustment of subsidies in Italy, upstream and downstream prices fell, including previously considered supportive of the strongest native polysilicon are substantial price cuts. This year the Italian market as the best terminal market, its subsidy cuts are immediately attracted industry-wide shocks. European buyers to lower prices for Chinese assembly active, while Chinese component manufacturers also reported excess inventory negative news, a number of manufacturers under pressure to start selling batteries, always strong silicon and silicon material prices began to loosen, monocrystalline 125 piece appeared 17 yuan / piece of low-cost, battery dropped RMB 2 per watt hair more. Component sales stagnated, wait and see attitude especially strong in Europe and abroad. But in mid-Japanese earthquake had a clear downward trend suddenly slowed, due to Japan's traditional chemical manufacturers, seismic impact on the semiconductor front-end and the supply of polysilicon feedstock needs assessment for some time, so the price of polysilicon is still running smoothly. The price of polysilicon wafers turn also led to quite gross prices flat is further diluted. Battery links due to large-scale production capacity, prices continue to show a downward trend, while the sales component was in the doldrums, the domestic component manufacturers also offer below € 1.2 / W, so that downstream firms tremendous pressure. By the end, the upstream polysilicon prices, lack of motivation, decreased willingness nor strong, limited cells and wafers corporate profits, while the end-market demand is clearly insufficient.
April, after the festival slightly upstream polysilicon bottom elevation, low-resource traded more actively. The price of silicon material support so that the pre-silicon prices relatively stable, cost and inventory pressure is not also make manufacturers do not want to go too cheap goods, smaller downstream purchases. But then the latest draft of the policy have been rumors about Italy, so that part of the price of silicon solar cells decline confusion, some manufacturers take measures to limit production of solar cells, coupled with the advent of rainy season in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the quality will have an impact on battery slice, for inventory pressure cells only in terms of the larger manufacturers to maintain low-cost shipping only alleviate pressure on the stock. The assembly is still hovering in the low-cost areas. At the end, although demand for the release has been part of Europe, but the prices are maintained at a lower level. A marked decline in the price of silicon material, silicon solar cell prices and therefore confusion downward trend, components also because there is no effective demand support prices kept falling. Until the introduction of the subsidy program in Italy, agreed to extend the existing subsidies for three months to August 31, only to have been on the sidelines of investor demand for the release of the existing projects in the short term, but this message does not cause solar industry any new investment.
5 Moonlight volts each product prices continued to drift lower, but because of the large capacity expansion this year, the market is still in a narrow range of the shocks. Upstream silicon material prices fell significantly, mainstream quotations of silicon materials for 530-580 yuan / kg. Silicon prices also have different degrees of decline. Battery under the dual pressure upstream and downstream of the prices continue to slump, component prices continue to decline, businesses are looking to slow international demand gradually release the current market pressures.
China's solar photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, but many companies do not invest a large scale, a PV module production line just over 100 million yuan. Hardware, clothing, electronic chemicals, printing and dyeing, chemical fiber and weaving industries. At the time component is a seller's market, and up to about 30% gross margin, indeed, many enterprises have tasted the "flourishes" pleasure. But now because of the various countries of photovoltaic subsidy policy and other factors, weak PV market, PV products have no market price is often faced with embarrassment. Increasing pressure on the downstream industry chain, only 10% of Maori component --15% allow some small businesses facing difficulties no one can take that many to seek short-term benefits of PV companies stretched.
Now, the PV market is a buyer's market temporarily enter the stage, the buyer than ever before have become picky.
Impossible in the short term because of photovoltaic products can be found quality problems, the life of solar photovoltaic products is generally 25 years, usually takes 6-8 years of observation time. That is, such a long "latency period" to make some bad business opportunity. Starting June 1, the State Administration of Quality Supervision turn to start a nationwide solar electronic components quality inspection, cleaning up and out of product quality, but off of the manufacturer. It is said that the inspection may last a quarter or even a year's time, we can see a major change in 2012 solar PV industry landscape unstoppable. PV is mainly reflected in the quality assurance of both safety and power, but is not yet formed quality control system. It is understood that the quality of PV modules has been non-cases, foreign system operators have been too many times into the bulk of the return. Can be seen in front of the market rules, the concept of quality first will never be outdated. Quality is the lifeline, if the product quality is a problem, may first defeated in the competition.
So in such a volatile market situation, the Chinese PV industry is on the way out of it? If you and I know, the answer of course is no. Investment Adviser's "2010-2015 China's solar PV equipment market investment analysis and forecast report" that the future of the PV market in Asia, and China will become the global PV manufacturing equipment is a major growth driver. Investment Advisor in Senior Fellow Li Sheng-mao expects domestic PV production capacity by the end of this year will reach 28-30GW, and photovoltaic electricity price policy will also be introduced in 2012, which means that large-scale photovoltaic industry will start.
The current PV market can only be regarded as an emerging industry into a normal market cycle. Like with any emerging industry, you want to grow and become mainstream, we must go through a R & D, to a large number of emerging markets party involved, and ultimately the survival of the fittest process. As long as we advance with the times, depending on the quality of life, continue to strengthen independent innovation, the future market will be ours.
